First-run toast holds back only a definite nothing
Pull request 16211, merged into quattro, sends the first-run update toast when omarchy-update-available finds an update or checkupdates lists a package. emirb wrote that only a definite nothing holds the toast back, so a failed check prompts as before.
emirb wrote that first run sends a critical "Update System" toast when the network is up, whatever the machine has pending. He wrote that on a fresh 4.5.0rc1 install checkupdates reports nothing, the bar's update icon stays hidden because omarchy-update-available says Omarchy is up to date, and the toast leads to an update with nothing to do.
The pull request says the update omarchy-update-available finds is for Omarchy itself or a development checkout, the bar's signal. It says checkupdates exits two when every package is current and one when it could not tell.